随机生产模拟的序列化分析

SEQUENCE-BASED ANALYSIS OF PROBABILISTIC PRODUCTION COST SIMULATION

传统的随机生产模拟通过离散卷积计算可靠性指标。但该方法不能解决综合资源规划面临的新问题,因为其中的系统负荷被划分为若干部分,每个部分具有不同的可靠性要求;类似的情况也存在于电力市场环境中。该文以序列运算理论为基础,建立了一种新的随机生产模拟算法,以评估系统的可靠性和经济性;提出了将需求与资源序列化的方法,通过使用供需双方对应的概率性序列进行卷和、卷差、交积等运算,完成逐个的资源-需求加载过程;指出了算法中各种运算以及模拟结果的期望值所代表的明确的物理意义。

Traditional Probabilistic Production Cost Simu-lation (PPCS) is based on Discrete Convolution (DC) to calculate reliability indices. However, DC could not be used in integrated resource planning, since system electrical demand is divided into several classes due to different reliability require-ments. Such situation also exists under deregulation environ-ment. Based on Sequence Operation Theory (SOT), a novel approach of power system PPCS is proposed to calculate system reliability and economic indices. Some concepts and definitions of PPCS are described by means of SOT so that it is very easy for us to apply sequence operations into power system. Unit loading process is calculated by means of sequence operations in terms of probabilistic sequences of both supply and demand side. Moreover, some physical meaning of such operations and the expected value of their results are given along with the calculation process.