一种考虑不确定性信息的专家综合评价方法

An evaluation method of experts decision making with uncertainty

针对专家评估中的不确定信息 ,在证据推理的框架下讨论了对定性指标的专家综合评价方法。重点研究了专家主观评判意见中的不准确性问题 ,提出一种新的表示专家不确定意见的信任度模型 ,解决了在这种表示下的专家意见的综合。算例表明该方法评估结果比较客观、合理。

Under an evidential reasoning framework, a new method for solving evaluation problem of qualitative attributes with uncertain information in multiple experts decision making is presented. Expert′s opinionisrepresentedbyacertain degree of belief so that uncertainty can be embedded in the evaluation.The synthesis based on this expression is solved.The example shows that the method is relatively objective and reasonable.