全球变暖的宏观经济模型

A Macroeconomic Model on Climate Change

对全球变暖的减排对策及其经济 -环境影响进行了理论分析 .全部的分析基于一个连续时间的动态模型 .模型是在考虑代际关系的背景之下提出来的 ,属于通行的代表性代理人模型一类 .模型还和全球变暖问题研究上广泛运用的综合评价模型 ( IAMs)在结构和功能上保持一致 ,不同的是 ,作者做了大胆的简化和抽象 ,既保证模型的解析可推导性 ,又不失其对实践的指导意义 .同时 ,模型的某些方面 ,如引入气温的效用 ,也是过去的模型所不具备的 .作者运用动态最优化的数学方法 ,在对基本模型进行推导的基础上 ,讨论了该动态系统的稳态解和最优路径等理论问题 .本文的研究对我国制定全球变暖的对策有一定的启发意义 .

This paper conducts a theoretical analysis on emission-reduction decisions dealing with global warming and their effects on economy-environment system. This analysis is entirely based on a continuous-time dynamic model. Reflecting considerations of intergenerational relationship, the model is classified to the widely accepted `representative agent model'. The models also follow the structures and functions of frequently used Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) of global warming. Beyond this, the author boldly proceeds abstracts and simplifications to balance mathematical tractability and practical reasonability. Other features such as utility measuring of temperature also distinguish the models. Using mathematical methods of dynamic optimization, the authors deduce the basic models and discuss theoretical problems such as the steady state and optimal path of the system. The results have some implications to national strategies dealing with climate change.