商品需求预测模型的辨识及应用

The Identification of the Preiction Models of Demand for A Gommodity with Applications

本文根据供—需平衡理论,讨论了市场需求预测模型的辨识问题。首先引进了商品的年需求系数、商品的已满足水平及剩余需求能力水平等概念。应用这些概念确定了市场需求预测模型的基本结构,它是一个双层形式的模型,第一层模型表示了年需求系数与剩余需求能力水平之间的关系。第二层模型表示了人均国民收入、商品的市场价格对年需求量的影响。

In this paper, the identification problem of market demand prediction model has been discussed by means of supply-demand interaction theory. First, the Concepts of annual demand coefficient, satisfied level and residual ability level of demand for a commodity have been introduced. The basic structure of market demand prediction model has been determined by these concepts, the market demand prediction model is a two-level model. The relation of annual demand coefficient and residual ability level is represented by the first-level model. The second-level model represents the influence of commodity market price and average national income per person on the amount of annual demand.