采用数字仿真技术预测未来年份粮食产量风险概率

Predicting the Grain Yield by means of Digital Emulation Models

采用风险分析理论 ,在对任意粮食生产单元多年粮食单产时间序列进行分析的基础上 ,将粮食产量波动的信息采用数字仿真技术叠加到趋势产量预测模型中 ,提出了估计未来年份该生产单元粮食产量不同结果出现概率的方法。分别设计了短期风险估测和长期风险预测的方案 。

Based on the risk theory,this paper analyses the character of the grain yield sequence in a certain area.And making use of digital emulators,we combine the signal of probability existed in the grain yield sequence with a normal grain yield forecast model,which could give the confidence and probability of a certain expected grain yield in a future year.The result could serve as the criterion for government decision in disaster relief as well as in planning for agricultural development.