地震预报科学发展需要新思维和新的观测手段

Development of earthquake prediction science needs new ideas and observational approaches

通过对地震预报现状的分析 ,认为传统的地震预报思路仍是目前经验性地震预报所依托的。但是要想从质上提高地震预报水平 ,使地震预报水平上一个大的台阶 ,必须引入新的思维和新的观测手段。新思维常常产生于新的观测结果中和隐含于失败的地震预报教训中。地震科学是一门依赖于观测的科学 ,新的观测手段和新的研究思路在地震预报的科学发展中将起到重要的或决定性的作用。

The state of the art regarding the earthquake prediction in China is deeply discussed in this paper.It is considered that the traditional earthquake prediction thinking has been still directed the recent empierical prediction. If we want to raise the level of earthquake prediction, we have to introduce new ideas and new observational approaches. The new ideas are usually originated from the new observational results and hidden in failure lessons of earthquake prediction practice. The earthquake science is such a kind of science,which relies on the observation. So, the new and modern earthquake precursory observational approaches and techniques will play a key role in development of earthquake prediction science.