华北地区诱发地震预报能力统计模拟分析研究

Statistical simulation analysis on the prediction ability of induced earthquakes in North China

用诱发地震的方法研究了 1 970年 1月 1日至 1 998年 1 2月 31日华北地区发生的 A-F- B震的关系 ,以及诱发地震的空间分布特征。用统计模拟的检验方法分析了诱发地震的预报能力 ,结果表明诱发地震发生后在 3年内 2 0 0 km范围发生 ML5.9级以上地震的概率为32 % ,大于将预报随机化计算的平均随机报准率与 3倍均方差之和。认为在应用本研究方法选用的参数时 ,诱发地震含有地震前兆信息 ,有一定的预报能力。

the relationship of A-F-B earthquakes occurred in North China from 1970 to 1998 is studied with the method of the induced earthquake.The prediction ability of induced earthquakes is tested from statistical simulation.The results show that the occurrence probability of M L≥5.9 earthquake is 32% within 200km in 3 years after an induced earthquakes occurred,which is higher than the sum of mean correlating rate and 3 times unbiased variance calculated from randomization.So the induced earthquakes contain some precursory information and have prediction ability in some extent.