长江三角洲地区水资源供需平衡的估算模型研究

Study on Supply and Demand Balance Model of Regional Water Resources for Yangtze Delta

从地表热量平衡、水量平衡的基本理论出发,结合长江三角洲地区的气象、水文、土壤等资料建立了区域水资源量估算模型,计算了该地区的地表水、地下水及水资源总量;同时建立了用水系统的各个子模型,即根据本区农业生产状况建立了农业耗水的物理模型,由工业和生活用水量的变化,结合地区经济发展、人口增加等情况,建立了工业和生活用水的统计模型。利用实际资料进行了模型检验,对本地区未来水资源供需平衡状况进行了分析和预测。

Water resources are indispensable materials for the existence and development of mankind.By analyzing the water resources of Yangtze Delta,this paper adopts basic theories of land surface heat and water balance,combines with meteorological,hydrological,soil condition and economy development of Yangtze Delta to develop a calculation and evaluation model of regional water resources amount.It calculates the ground,underground and total water resources of this region.Meanwhile,this paper also develops the sub -models of water consumption system.That is:an agriculture water consumption model based on the agriculture production situation;statistical models for industry and population water consumption based on economic development,population increase etc.Then the models are tested based on actual data.The future situation of water resources' supply and demand balance is predicted and analyzed.It then provides scientific guidance for reasonable use and protection of water resources for this region.