地统计方法在黑河上游气象分析中的应用比较

Comparing three geostatistical methods used in the upstream of the Heihe River watershed

选取黑河上游研究区内的气象站,再逐渐增加其周围的站点,通过计算增加站点前后的误差效果,确定最优观测站点集为上游区域内的观测站点.应用3种不同的地统计方法对黑河上游气象要素进行插值,并比较其优劣.结果表明:无论是气温插值还是降水插值,改进的反距离倒数加权法的插值效果均比其他两种方法好;3种方法对气温数据的拟合效果较好,对山区降水事件的拟合能力均不理想.但当仅需要对降雨总量进行预测、计算时,改进的反距离倒数加权法效果较好.

Chosed one of meteorological stations in the upstream of Heihe River, and then added in more stations from surrounding areas. A comparison of different results helped us decide which could serve a better purpose for estimation of the spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation through computing. An evaluation of three geostatistical methods was made to interpolate the long-term daily temperature and precipitation in the upstream of the Heihe River watershed in 2010. One of the weather stations was used to estimate the results interpolated from the other stations. According to the mean absolute error （MAE） and mean squared error （MSE） at validation stations, the inverse weighted distance was slightly better than the other two methods when temperature data were used, but only the improved inverse weighted distance method showed a good result when the rainfall data were calculated.