不确定条件下海上危化品运输安全演变机理

Safety evolution mechanism for the maritime dangerous chemical transportation system under uncertainty conditions

为研究不确定因素对运输系统的影响,基于耗散理论提出海上危险化学品运输系统安全演变机理,从能量观点建立系统势能函数模型,在研究系统安全过程中同时考虑系统的熵和能量。利用熵原理推导出系统安全熵变化曲线,并对曲线进行安全等级划分。数值算例验证了熵与能量结合能够定量描述不确定因素对运输系统的影响,有利于系统安全路径的选择。结果表明,熵和能量与海上危化品运输系统安全演变密切相关。

To study the impacts of uncertainties on the transportation system, a safety evolution mechanism for the maritime dangerous chemical transportation system （ MDCTS） was proposed based on the dissipative theory, and the system potential energy function model was established from the viewpoint of energy. Both the entropy and energy of the system were taken into account during the process of the research. Through the application of the entropy principle, the entropy curve showing the system safety variations was derived and the safety levels of the system were defined as well. The example verifies that the combination of entropy and energy can quantitatively describe the impacts of the uncertainties on the transportation system, which is conducive to the selection of the safety path of the system. The results show that entropy and energy bear close relationships with the safety evolution of MDCTS.