多层次灰色评价法对FPSO船火灾风险的评估

Fire Risk Assessment of FPSO Vessels by Multilevel Grey Evaluation Method

针对浮式生产、储油、卸油船(FPSO船)在多层次、多变量和多种非定量因素影响下缺乏有效定量评估火灾风险手段的情况,采用多层次灰色综合安全评价法,构建火灾风险评价指标体系,对FPSO船进行火灾风险评估。在计算过程中结合层次分析法,确定各层指标对应的权重,将风险影响程度进行定量化处理,最终确定评价体系整体安全性良好。多层次灰色评估方法针对少数据、小样本、信息不完全和经验缺乏的不确定性问题具有计算简便、科学、准确和实用的特点,可为FPSO船在火灾风险安全评估方面提供一定的依据。

For the situation that under the influence of multi-level,multivariate and nonquantitative factors the floating production,storage and offloading(FPSO)vessels is lack of effective means of quantitative evaluation of fire risk,multi-level grey comprehensive safety evaluation method was used to build a fire risk evaluation index system and to evaluate the fire risk of FPSO vessels.Combined with Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)in the process of calculation,the weight of each layer of indicators was determined.The degree of risk impact was quantified,and it was concluded that ultimately the integral security of the evaluation system was good.Multi-level gray evaluation method,for the problems with a few data,small samples,incomplete information and lack of experience,is simple,scientific,accurate and practical,which can provide certain references for the FPSO vessels on fire safety risk assessment.