FDI、经济增长与工业污染——基于安徽省1993—2012年数据的EKC检验

FDI,Economic Growth and Industrial Pollution——EKC test based on data of Anhui province during 1993—2012

基于协整理论、格兰杰因果检验和EKC假说,考察了安徽省利用FDI发展经济背后的环境风险。研究结果显示:FDI和工业废气、工业固体废物均存在协整和因果关系,但无论在长期还是短期,FDI对工业废水排放的影响都不明显,这很大程度上取决于FDI在安徽省的行业分布状况。此外,样本期间安徽省不存在严格的"倒U"型EKC,工业废气和工业固体废物仍随着经济增长而不断增加,工业废水减排的管制效果明显,其与经济增长的关系呈"U+倒U"型,而外资的流入则进一步加大了安徽省跨越EKC顶点的难度。

Based on co-integration theory, Granger causality test and EKC hypothesis, this paper analyzes the environmental risk behind utiliza-tion of FDI for economic development in Anhui Province. The results show that whether in long-term or short-term, while the impact of FDI onthe discharge of industrial wastewater is not obvious, FDI causes a significant increase in industrial emissions and industrial solid waste, which de-pends largely on the industrial distribution of FDI in Anhui Province. Furthermore, there is no strict ＂inverted U＂ EKC in Anhui Province, industrial emissions and industrial solid waste fail to reduce with the economic growth, and relationship between industrial wastewater discharge and eco-nomic growth presents a ＂U＋ inverted U＂ type because of the productive curb. Finally, inflow of foreign capital making Anhui Province more last-ing in the rising segment of EKC.