棉花品质与气候因子的灰色关联度分析——以新疆石河子地区为例

Grey relational analysis between cotton quality and climatic factors——A case of Shihezi City in Xinjiang

[目的]运用灰色系统理论对新疆石河子地区气候因子与棉花品质进行关联度分析,为石河子地区棉花生产过程中应对气候变化、合理利用气候资源、有效规避气候风险提供参考.[方法]以2010～2012年整个棉花生长期所有月份的月度平均气温、降水量和日照时数为主要气候因子,以对应年份的3级棉花为评测依据,通过均值像变换法将平均气温、降水量和日照时数进行无量纲化后作为输入变量,棉花品质为输出变量,建立灰色关联度分析模型.[结果]2010～2012年,3个气候因子的关联度大小顺序为：平均降水量＞平均气温＞平均日照时数;按月度分析,平均气温和平均日照时数对棉花品质影响最大的月份主要集中在5～9月,平均降水量对棉花品质影响最大的月份为4、5、7和10月.[结论]灰色关联度分析模型可以客观地分析评价气候因子对棉花品质影响的相关性,在棉花生产实际中有一定的适用性.

[Objective]Grey relational analysis between cotton quality and climatic factors was conducted to provide references for dealing with climate changes,properly using climatic resources and effectively avoiding climate risks.[Method]Major climatic factors were monthly average temperature,precipitation and sunshine hours of the entire cotton growth period in 2010-2012.Level three cotton of the same year was used as the evaluation standard.Using image transfomation method after the dimensionlessness,with monthly average temperature,precipitation and sunshine hours as input variables and cotton quality as output variable,the grey correlation analytical model was established.[Result]In 2010-2012,the sequence of the three climatic factors was monthly average precipitation＞temperature＞sunshine hours.Considering month,the most influential months of monthly average temperature and sunshine hours on cotton quality were from May to September.The most influential months of monthly precipitation on cotton quality were April,May,July and October.[Conclusion]The established model of grey relational analysis is applicable in practical cotton production,as it is an objective method for evaluating the effects of climatic factors on cotton quality.