健康期望寿命的Sullivan方法和增减寿命表方法的评价

Evaluation of Sullivan Method and Increment-decrement Life Table Method for Health Expectancy

目的 比较健康期望寿命的Sullivan方法和增减寿命表方法计算结果的差异 ,考核Sullivan方法的有效性。方法 构造不同的方案来变化发病率、死亡率和恢复率 ,根据模拟人群比较两种方法的计算结果。结果 当各种率以一定的速度持续递减时 ,两种方法的计算结果非常接近 ;当各种率突然较大幅度变化时 ,Sullivan方法的估计值与增减寿命表方法的真值偏差较大 ,但是随着时间的增加 ,两者的差值逐渐减少 ,并最终达到两者相同。结论 Sullivan方法的计算结果基本上可以反映实际的健康状况 。

Objective To compare features of Sullivan method and increment-decrement life table method of health expectancy calculation,and to prove the validity of Sullivan method.Methods A comparison of health expectancies by two methods was done based on a simulated populaton and various scenarios about the changes of incidence,recovery rate and mortality rate.Results When mortality rates,recovery rates and incidences decrease successively with certain speed,each year the estimates from both methods are very similar;When there are sudden and large changes in incidences,mortality rates and recovery rates,there is some difference between the estimates from Sullivan method and its real values.But the difference of two estimates gradually decreases with time increasing and finally the two estimates are same.Conclusion The estimates from Sullivan method can almost reflect real health condition and Sullivan method is generally acceptable for monitoring the changes of health condition for populations.