北京市经济增长与环境污染水平计量模型研究

Modeling economic growth and environmental degradation of Beijing

选取北京市 1985～ 1999年经济与环境数据 ,通过分析经济因子与环境因子相互关系 ,探究北京市经济增长与环境质量演替轨迹 ,以建立北京市经济增长与环境污染水平计量模型 ,为评价北京市环境政策提供依据。实证研究表明 :北京市自 1985年以来随着经济增长其环境恶化程度在下降 ,且已进入经济与环境协调发展后期阶段。北京市各环境指标与人均GDP演替轨迹呈现显著的环境库兹涅茨曲线特征 ,但比发达国家较早实现了其环境库兹涅茨曲线转折点 ,且到达转折点的时间跨度小于发达国家。这主要归功于中国及北京市政府近 10年来 ,尤其 1995年以来有效环境政策和巨额环境投资以及科技后发优势。

This paper empirically examines Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) with time series data from 1985 to 1999 and provides a basis for the environmental policy evaluation of Beijing. The results lead to two main conclusions:1) The environmental policy and the environmental investment of Beijing municipal and central governments have made the turning point of EKC come early, being around 10000 15000 yuan at constant price of 1978, or 25000 40000 yuan at present price of 1999, or 3000 5000 US dollars by exchange rates of middle price in the year end of 1999, or 15000 20000 US dollars calculated in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) way,and if the GDP per capita grows at the rate of 8%, the turning point will come true during 2005 2010. 2)The relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation takes on an inverted U, but different regions may have different turning points, different time spans for realizing the turning point of EKC, and different slopes for the rising declining pattern. Four points are identified from this examination of the EKC for Beijing: First, this analysis suggests that it is not appropriate to generalize the emergence of EKC for all environmental indicators. Among the 12 main environmental indicators of Beijing, only two do not have enough explanatory meaning for the EKC. On the whole, the relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation in Beijing has an obvious EKC character. Second, the efficient environmental policy and the huge environmental investment of the Beijing municipal and central governments have made its turning point of the EKC arrive early. Third, the EKC should not be widely assumed and it is necessary to refer to various and more flexible explanations. In other words, economic factors may be important, but social and natural factors should also be taken into account, such as environmental policy, environmental awareness of residents and the spread of environmental technology. Finally, the relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation theoretically takes on an inverted U, but different regions may have different turning points, different time spans of reaching the EKC turning point, and different slopes of rising declining pattern.