临安市森林资源消耗量的灰色系统建模

Modeling by Grey System of Forest Resource Consumption in Lin'an

应用灰色系统建模理论与方法，以临安市１９８５～１９９９年森林资源消耗量为时间序列数据，建立ＧＭ（１，１）消耗预测模型为： 回测的最大误差为６．７％，平均误差４．７％，回测精度较高。预测模型经后验差比检验：Ｃ＝０．００３３＜０．３５，小误差频率检验：Ｐ＝１＞０．９５，模型精度为Ⅰ级（表３参４）。

Taking forest consumption of Lin'an, Zhejiang province from 1985 to 1999 as time series data, a forecating model was established with GM(1, 1); X(1) (K+1) = 996.44 e0.030414-9996.44, the maximal error was 6.7%, the average one 4.7% showing high accuracy. The posterior error test showed that c=0.0033<0.35, error frequency P=1>0.95, and the accuracy of the model was grade one.