参与、不确定性与投资秩序的生成和演化——解读投资者动机和预期的另一个视角

Participation,Uncertainty and the Genesis and Evolution of Investment Order:Another Framework to Interpret Investor's Motive and Expectance

不同于现有主流理论把投资者的动机和预期理解为投资者实现其效用最大化的计算过程 ,本文认为投资者的动机和预期表明投资者对于投资决策的一种参与 ,并在此基础上提出一个解释框架。这一解释框架把投资者动机和预期所包含的对于投资决策的参与态度及感受定义为参与指数 ,不同的参与指数形成不同的投资者群体 ,而不同投资者群体的互动 ,决定着对投资决策最终发生实际作用的投资秩序的生成与演化 ,不确定性正是刻划了投资秩序生成与演变的主观性和非设计性。

Differing from the main stream theory which treat investor's motive and expectance as a calculus process to maximize their utility,the authors treat investor's motive and expectance as investor's participating in investment decision and develop a framework based on this point of view. In this framework,participation index is used to describe investor's attitude and sense,inferred from investor's motive and expectance during investment decision\|making. Different investor groups resulting from different participation indexes interact on investment decision\|making and this interaction determine the genesis and evolution of investment order which actually affect the make of investment decision.Uncertainty resides just in the subjectiveness and undesigned of investment order evolution.