推力轴承油膜瞬态温度的ARIMA模型预测

ARIMA Model to Predict Transient Oil Film Temperature of Thrust Bearings

针对大型推力轴承油膜温度监控这一关键性问题,提出了采用非平稳时间序列ARIMA (p, d, q)模型描述油膜瞬态温度变化,用一组实测温度变化曲线证明了用ARIMA 模型描述油膜温度的适用性,最后用预报校正递推算法来实时预测将来时刻油膜温度变化趋势。

The nonstationary time series model ARIMA (p, d, q) describing the transient oil film temperature is adopted aimed at the key issue of oil film temperature monitoring of the large scale thrust bearings. The actual measurement of oil film temperature demonstrates that it is feasible to utilize ARIMA (p, d, q) to describe the oil temperature transients of thrust bearings. At the end, the on-line recursion algorithm of updating forecast formula is presented to predict variation trend of the oil film temperature for thrust bearings.