油田开发指标的组合预测方法

A Combination Prediction Method for Development Indices

在油藏工程中,广义翁氏预测模型、双对数型产量衰减曲线预测模型和水驱曲线模型都是比较重要的预测模型。然而,它们都有自身的局限性。现将这三种方法相结合,除详细说明求解方法外,还用组合预测的方法来校正预测结果。该方法不仅可以预测水驱油气田的产量、产水量、最高年产量及其发生的时间,还可预测可采储量、含水率和体积波及系数等开发指标。应用结果表明,它与其它模型相比,具有更高的预测能力和预测精度。

The generalized Weng's model,dual logarithm production decline curve model and water drive curve model are popular to use in reservoir engineering study.However,they have their own limitations.Integrated with these methods,this paper presented a combination prediction method to correct predictive results as well as providing expla-nation in detail of their solutions.This method is not only applied to predict production,water production,the top annual yield and related time in a hydrocarbon field by waterdrive process,but also to predict recoverable reserves,water cut and volumetric sweep efficiency.The result shows that it has much higher predictive power and precision compared with other models.