棉铃虫灾变监测预警指标体系及其风险警级研究

Studies on the Early-warning Index System and Risky Degree Evaluation to Calamity of Cotton Bollworm

把棉铃虫看作自然灾害与风险的一种进行剖析 ,提出依据不同灾变过程中所表现出来的警源、警兆、警情等不同风险程度的各因素统计指标 ,精选组成灾变监测预警指标体系并组建多维预警逻辑模型。通过对各灾变预警指标的定性分级或定量分级 ,在综合灾变预警的主要生物和非生物因素对灾变影响的权重分析并计算灾变风险预警综合指标值的基础上 ,确定棉铃虫灾变预警等级。 1 999～ 2 0 0 0年预警综合准确率为 89.7%。据此可使灾变预警更加符合实际 。

Take bollworm injuring cotton as one kind of the important natural calamities. Based on the agri ecosystem analysis, the early warning index system and risky degree evaluation to calamity of cotton bollworm were constructed, which consisted of the related factors including insect pests, natural enemies, cropping system, climate, social and economical factors, level of integrated pest management and so on. Among those factors, according to the expression of risk in the calamity process they are classified three layers, namely risky resource, risky sign and risky case, respectively. Each factor could be measured for risk by 1 5 grade with the methods of fixed quantity or qualitative analysis. The weight coefficient of each factor was given. The models calculated the integrated early warning index and risky grade were proposed. They could be used to help optimizing decision for integrated cotton bollworm control and decreasing the degree of calamity. The application of this system was discussed.