实施大气污染物排放总量控制后能源系统的减排效果

Reduction of emissions from energy systems under implementing atmospheric-pollutant emission control

要以上海为例,采用MARKAL模型研究了能源系统对未来环境政策的响应。政策情景包括提高能源效率、能源结构调整、实施SO2排放总量控制等。研究结果显示,提高能源效率和实施能源结构调整后,上海市CO2、SO2和PM10排放量将明显降低。进一步削减NOx和PM10排放将主要取决于末端处理技术。

This paper investigated the response of the energy system when energy and environmental policies adopted in the very near future. Those policies include energy efficiency improvement, energy switch from coal to natural gas, SO2 emission control target etc. To evaluate the energy system response, a Market Allocation model (MARKAL) was used in Shanghai case study for analyzing the reduction of CO2 and local atmospheric-pollutant emissions. The Results show that energy efficiency and energy switch from coal to gas will reduce CO2, SO2 and PM10 emissions significantly. The further reduction of local atmospheric-pollutant emissions in future will mostly depend on the introduction of end-pipe technologies.