由路段交通量推算 OD 出行矩阵的 Bayes 统计方法

The Bayesian Statistical Method for estimating OD trip matrix from link volumes

本文指出了以最大熵方法为代表的优化模型在解决由路段交通量推算OD出行矩阵问题中的局限性,提出了描述问题的统计模型和解决问题的Bayes统计方法,从而得到OD出行矩阵的Bayes估计。它比优化模型所得到的OD出行矩阵估计合理、可靠,更便于实际应用。最后,本文还提出了有关分布参数的计算方法。

In this paper, the limitations of Optimization Model(OM), represented by maximum entropy method, have been pointed out in solving the problem of estimating OD trip matrix from link volumes, and Statistical Model and Bayesian Statistical Method for solving it have been proposed. We obtain the Bayesian estimator of OD trip matrix, which is more reasonable and reliable than the estimator obtained by OM and convenient to practical use. Finally,calculative methods for some distributional parameters are also given.