利率变化对汇率影响的再研究

InfIuence of Interest Rate Movement on Exchange Rate

从资本市场套利的角度来看,汇率与利率之间存在着天然的联系。但是,利率变化对汇率的影响是不确定的。要深入判断汇率如何变化,关键在于区分利率变化的原因,分清是实质性经济因素,还是货币性因素在起作用,找出驱动利率变化的本源动力。只有这样,才能透过现象看本质,准确地判断出利率变动时外汇市场的反应。

In terms of capital market arbitrage, there exists an innate connection between the exchange rate and interest rate. But, the influence of interest rate movement on exchange rate is uncertain. The key to judge the trend of exchange rate movement is to determine the underlying force of the movement, and find out whether it is a substantial economic factor or a monetary factor. Only then could we make correct judgment on the reactions of forex market to the interest rate movements.