电力系统中长期负荷预测的模糊算法

Fuzzy Methods for Medium and Long-Term Load Forecasting of Power System

介绍了用模糊指数平滑法和模糊线性回归法进行电力系统中长期负荷预测的方法 ,以实际预测为例 ,给出预测结果 .实践证明了上述 2种方法虽然以传统预测方法为基础 ,但具有算法简单、计算速度快、预测精度高、预测误差小 ,并能提供负荷的一个预测区间等优点 ,尤其在原始数据存在不确定性和模糊性时 。

Two forecasting methods with fuzzy theory were introduced, namely fuzzy exponential smoothing method and fuzzy linear regression method. The forecasting result was given for a practical example. It is proven that those two methods are on the basis of traditional forecasting methods, but have the advantage of simple, fast calculation, high forecasting accuracy and low forecasting error and they can also provide a forecasting area of load. Especially when the uncertainty and fuzzy characteristic are found in the raw data, those two methods have much more advantages.