居民储蓄——准货币之主源

Household Savings in China:Its Determinants and Its Role in Quasi-money Supply

本文的主旨是探求广义货币中之准货币部分与居民储蓄行为间的关系。本文利用分析时序数据的经济计量模型，建立和估计出城乡居民的人均消费行为关系，用以推算居民的储蓄潜力。再用居民储蓄潜力来解释银行城乡储蓄总额，最后用银行城乡储蓄总额来解释广义货币中的准货币部分。建模试验结果表明，居民人均储蓄行为具有相当的规律性，而且储蓄与准货币供给之间也存在着相当稳定的关系。本文还就利率、利率差、收入及收入不确定性等因素对居民储蓄的影响，做了各种模拟试验。

Household saving forms the lion's share of China's national savings today.In this study,an empirical model is built to explain the latent Chinese household saving potential by their consumption behaviour using the urban and rural household income and consumption data.The modeled saving potential is then used to explain urban and rural household savings. Various model simulations are performed to analyze the effects of interest rates,income and income uncertainty on the saving potential and actual bank deposits variables.Finally,the bank deposits variable is used to model the quasi-money supply.The close link found between household bank savings and the quasi-money helps to explain the very high M2/GDP ratio in China.