中美石油产量与可采储量预测

To Predict Oil Production and Recoverable Reserves of China and USA.

用3W、3Y1、b(tc)因子型、bttc因子型4种增长曲线计算和预测了中国和美国石油产量变化,计算了它们的可采储量及剩余可采储量。对比表明,4种增长曲线计算的产量—累积产量关系与实际数据拟合得相当好,其中美国用4种增长曲线的计算结果更加一致。分析表明bttc因子型增长曲线的性能略优于其余3种增长曲线。用bttc因子型增长曲线计算美国石油峰值产量发生在1975年,年产5.0077×108t,实际峰值产量发生在1970年,年产5.3088×108t,两者比较接近。计算中国石油峰值产量发生在2002年,年产1.6265×108t,实际峰值产量发生在1998年,年产1.6082×108t,两者也比较接近。计算还表明。中国石油可采储量为79×108t,1999年剩余可采储量44×108t;美国石油可采储量312×108t,1999年剩余可采储量52×108t.

By using growth curves of3W,3Y1,b (t c ) factor mould and b t t c factor mould,oil production,recoverable reserves and remaining recoverable reserves of China and USA were calculated and predicted.The comparison shows that the calculated oil production vs cumulative oil production using four growth curves with the actual data is fairly well-matched.The calculated results by using four growth curves for USA are more identical.The analysis shows that the growth curve of b t t c factor mould is slightly better other three growth curves.The calculated oil peak production of USA using the growth curve of b t t c factor mould occurred in1975with oil peak production of5.0077×10 8 t/a;the actual oil peak production occurred in1970,with oil peak production of5.3088×10 8 t/a.We can find out that both calculated and actual results are relatively identical,showing that oil production of USA was sustained decline;while the calculated oil peak production of China occurred in2002,with oil peak production of1.6265×10 8 t/a;the actual oil peak production occurred in1998,with oil peak production of1.6052×10 8 t/a.We can find out that both calculated and actual results are also about the same,showing that in about 2000the oil production of China turns from increase or steady to decline.The calculation shows that oil recoverable reserves of China is79×10 8 t,remaining oil recoverable reserves of USA is312×10 8 t,remaining oil recoverable reserves of USA in1999is52×10 8 t.