东部地区水产品中长期供求的趋势

Supply-demand estimations of aquatic products on middle-long term of East region of China

本文通过分析我国东部地区水产品的生产供给潜力和消费水平 ,探讨了我国东部地区水产品流通和供求的平衡状态。在此基础上 ,用计量经济分析软件包MicroTSP回归分析了人均消 0费量与人均GDP ,人均消费量与时间序列 (T)的线形和对数关系 ;同时试图用生产历史统计数据推算人均消费量并进行预测。经过拟合优选 ,建立了以时间为解释变量 ,以水产品人均消费量作为被解释变量的回归方程 (Y =A +BT) 。

By reviewing the present situation of fishery production and demand for aquatic products, the paper studies circulation and supply-demand's balance of aquatic products of East distruction of China. The Micro TSP was used to analyse relationships between GDP and demand for aquatic products. The relationship between time series and the demand for aquatic products is also studied. The equation (Y=A+BT) is set up for estimating the demands for aquatic products in East region of China.