基于威布尔分布的装备研制时间-费用模型

Time-cost Model of Weapon Systems R&D Based on Weibull Distribution

科学地估算研制费用为项目的立项决策和科学分配费用提供了依据.威布尔分布是描述装备研制时间-费用模型的一种有效形式.本文分析了威布尔分布的形式、特点和装备研制时间-费用模型的两种基本模式.基于已有项目的历史数据,对类似新项目的威布尔时间-费用模型的参数估计进行了研究.根据装备研制费用发生的特点进行了合理的假设和推理,导出了参数的取值范围,减小了主观因素对参数估计的影响.最后结合一个具体实例验证了方法的有效性.

Weibull distribution is an effective time\|cost model for weapon systems R&D. In this paper, Weibull distribution's parameter estimation methods are discussed for a future project based on historic data of similar projects. A reasonable value range of parameters is given by some hypothesis and reasoning according to the characteristics of weapon systems R&D. Finally, an example is analyzed to prove the methods' effectiveness.