电力系统中长期负荷预测软件包的开发

DEVELOPMENT OF A POWER SYSTEM MID-LONG TERM LOAD FORECASTING SOFTWARE PACKAGE

作者开发了基于 Windows操作平台的电力系统中长期负荷预测软件包。该软件包分为原始数据处理、负荷预测、预测结果处理三个模块 ,各模块相互独立 ,易于扩充。在该软件包建立的负荷预测的模型库具有分析、计算快速 ,检验方法多、结果输出形式多样的特点。模型库具备智能化的专家系统 ,可以针对不同地区的具体情况进行调整 ,适用范围广泛。最后以某地区的需电量历史数据为例 ,选择了 5种不同模型进行了预测 ,并与综合模型的预测结果进行了分析和比较。分析表明该软件包人机界面友好、选用模型合理、预测结果精度较高 ,能够满足当今快速发展的电力市场对于电力负荷预测的精度的要求 ,并解决了当前电力系统中一些负荷预测软件可操作性不强、模型适用范围小的问题。

In this paper a power system mid-long term load forecasting software package based on Window platform is developed, which consists of three independent and easy-to-expand modules: original data processing module, load module and forecasting result processing module.In this software package a model library for load forecasting, which consists of five different models, is established which possesses high analysis and calculation speed, manifold inspection methods and varied output forms.The model library is provided with intelligent expert system, which can carry out adjustments according to the different situations in different regions, and possesses wide sphere of application.Taking the historical data of electrical energy demand of a certain region for example, five different models are respectively used for load forecasting and their forecasting results are compared with that forecasted by integrated model.Analysis shows that the presented software package has friendly man-machine interface, proper model library and high accuracy of forecasting results, so this software package can meet the need of load forecasting precision under the condition of quick evolution of electricity market at present and the problems existing in some other current load forecasting softwares, such as weak operability and narrow scope of application of the models, can also be solved by this software package.