试论加入WTO对中国就业结构的影响

Tentatively on the Impact of WTO Entry on China's Employment Structure

在分析就业弹性变化的基础上 ,本文考察了入世对就业的影响。总体上来看 ,WTO对就业的影响在方向上和目前就业的发展和变化趋势一致 ,这就决定了入世对就业不会造成净负面影响。但分三次产业来看 ,入世对就业的影响是不同的。农业是受入世影响和冲击最严重的行业 ,但农业因此而损失的就业机会只相当于目前农村剩余劳动力数量的极小一部分 ,约占 0 .7～ 1 %左右 ,入世对农业的影响和冲击主要体现在收入而不是就业上 ;入世对工业就业的影响有正有负 ,这要依具体工业行业特点而定 ,但增减相抵 ,入世对工业就业仍然具有增加效应 ;最后 ,入世将大大促进就业机会的增加 ,第三产业就业是中国入世最大的收益者。

Based on an analysis of the employment elasticity in China, the paper has investigated the impact of WTO entry on employment. Generally speaking, WTO entry will not affect the employment in a way that differs from the trends of employment change. That is to say, WTO entry will not reduce the opportunities of employment in China in both a short and a long run. However, by industries, the effects of WTO entry on employment are different. The impact of WTO on agricultural employment is insignificant in terms of employment, but it is severe in terms of income reduction. The impact of WTO entry on the second industry is dependent upon the characteristics of industries, but the net effect will be positive. At last, the employment opportunities in the third industry will increase greatly due to WTO entry, so it is the third industry that would benefit the most from WTO entry in terms of employment.