期权定价理论在项目决策中的应用

The Application of Pricing Option Theory to Project Decision

由于产品和要素市场的随机性特征,项目的预期现金流量具有较大的不确定性,仅用传统的NPV法则进行评估,往往低估其价值,且具有浓厚的主观色彩。本文将期权定价的基本思想和操作程式应用于项目评估,结合具体的案例分析,为管理者把握项目的启动时期,以及启动后进一步扩展或终止该项目提供了新的思路与数量化分析工具,以探讨金融工程在我国实施的可操作性途径。

Due to the random characteristic of product and factor market,the expected cash flow of projects is con-siderably uncertain.Estimating only by traditional NPV method often undervalues the project and is of great subjectivity.This article applies basic theory and operation process of pricing option to project estimation,and puts forward new thoughts and quantitative analyzing methods for the decision of starting,expanding or terminating the project.