中国外资需求的实证分析

Empirical Analysis of Foreign Capital Demand of China

随着我国改革步伐的加快及国内经济建设的快速发展 ,我国利用外资工作取得了飞速的发展 ,外资的利用对促进我国经济持续、快速、健康的发展发挥了极其重要的作用 .进入 2 0世纪 90年代以来 ,随着我国利用外资的大幅增长 ,由于引资规模、引资结构不当等原因产生负面效应逐渐加大作用 ,它严重影响着我国国内的经济建设 .了解我国利用外资情况 ,对我国外资需求进行深入的研究 ,建立合理的外资需求模型 ,对我国引进外资的规模进行计划决策 ,充分发挥外资的正面效应是非常重要的 .本文利用协整与误差校正模型这一先进的计量工具对外资需求进行研究 ,得出我国外资需求的长期及短期模型 .研究结果表明 ,我国外资需求与国内生产总值、出口总额。

China has gained great progress in utilizing foreign capital which has been playing important role in China's economic development. In the 90's, with the huge increase of foreign capital, some negative effects resulted from inappropriate foreign capital scale and structure have broadened and seriously influenced Chin's economic construction. Therefore, it seems extremely important to research deeply foreign capital demand in order to bring foreign capital into full play. This paper analyzes the foreign capital demand utilizing advanced econometric tools such as cointegration and error-correction model and ultimately establishes long term and term short model for foreign capital demand in China. Research shows that there is cointegration between GDP, export volume, import volume and exchange rate.