从制度经济学看中国的人口转变

A Study on the Demographic Transition in China——From the perspective of the Institutional Economics

制度经济学指出 ,当个人行为产生负外部性时 ,需要政府制订制度 ,使社会成本内部化 ,实现集体理论 ,但是 ,制度必须符合个人理性且必须内部化 ,才能有效发挥作用。中国的人口转变是在政府干预下进行的 ,所以 ,判断中国的人口转变是否完成 ,必须考察在人口中是否完成了生育文化和生育观念的变革。笔者认为 ,我国的人口转变尚未完成 ,因为生育率稳定在低水平的内在机制尚未形成 ,只有在生育主体自主选择的基础上达到稳定低生育水平 ,才能说完成了人口转变。

The institutional economics points out that it is necessary for a government to constitute a system when individual behaviors have negative externality. To do so, internalization of social cost and collective rationality can be achieved. However, the system must accord to individual rationality and be internalized, otherwise the system can′t work well. In China, the demographic transition has been going on under the government′s intervention. Therefore, to judge whether the demographic transition is accomplished, we have to examine whether the reproductive culture and notion have been changed. The author thinks that the demographic transition has not been done yet, because the internal mechanism facilitating to stabilize the low fertility has not been formed. Only if the people are willing to choose the low fertility and the low fertility is stabilized, the real demographic transition can be achieved.