艾滋病流行趋势分析

The trend analysis of AIDS epidemic

目的 分析世界艾滋病尤其是中国艾滋病的流行趋势 ,并预测短期艾滋病的发病数。方法 通过对几个具有代表性国家的艾滋病实际病例数的分析 ,选用SPSS曲线估计中拟合优度最佳的三项式模型进行拟合和预测。结果 各国艾滋病病例数拟合图的确定系数 (R2 )均大于 0 9,P值小于 0 0 5 ,拟合效果均为优。预测结果中 ,中国、南非、泰国、日本、澳大利亚、法国的平均相对误差分别为 8 5 %、18 2 5 %、 11 2 5 %、 9 2 5 %、 7 75 %、 6 2 5 %。结论 世界范围内艾滋病流行出现了两种趋势 :上升和下降。中国控制艾滋病的前景如何 ,将取决于能否及时采取控制艾滋病的措施以及措施的得力与否。

Objective To analysis the global trends of AIDS epidemic, with a particular focus on China. Methods The data of incidences of AIDS in China and some foreign countries were provided by UNAIDS/WHO. The curve estimation and forecast of epidemic trends were estimated by cubic curve estimation in SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Science) 10.0. Results The global trends of AIDS epidemic were divided into two types: increasing and decreasing. Based on the incidences of AIDS, the results of the curve estimations are satisfying and the relative estimated errors located between 6.25% and 18.25% respectively. The R Squares exceeded 0.9 with a significance of P lesser than 0.05. Conclusion Compare China with some foreign countries, if the effective control measures were not taken, the increasing trend of HIV infection in China will continues.