地震灾害风险因素和风险评估指标的模糊算法

Main factors influencing seismic disasters risk and a fuzzy algorithm for the risk evaluation index

提出了影响地震灾害风险的主要因素 ,分析了地震震级、烈度、人口密度等因素与某些震害现象之间的相关性 ,以及建筑物的地震破坏程度与其它风险因素的关系。筛选出了地震灾害模糊风险分析指标———震损度DA(其用于风险评估的指标值为 (da) 0 )。给出了一种多变量信息分配算法的公式。在建立因果律模糊关系矩阵时 ,以归并、排序的方法解决了自变量在其样本空间组合后的重叠与错序问题 ,并简化了矩阵运算。在此基础上 ,建立了震损度指标值 (da) 0 的计算方法。

The main factors influencing seismic disasters risk are put forward. Relativity between earthquake magnitude, intensity, density of population and the disasters from a earthquake, and the relationship between degree of buildings' destruction and the other risk factors is analyzed. An applicable index for fuzzy risk analysis of seismic disasters is selected. An formula that can be commonly used at multi-dimension information distribution is given. Then an algorithm of the index is established and illustrated with a example.