灰色模型在大武水源地水质预测中的应用

THE APPLICATION OF GREY MODEL IN DAWU WATER QUALITY PREDICATION WATER RESOURCE SITE

根据大武水源地的实际 ,运用灰色理论和方法进行GM(1,1)模型的建立、精度检验、模型修正的过程 ,并用该模型对大武水源地的水质变化趋势进行了预测。预测结果证明 ,该模型用于地下水源地水质预测 ,符合地下水系统的灰色特性 ,适用性好 ,预测结果与环境状况吻合。另外 ,本文还就残差模型修正中的约束条件。

This paper introduces the procedure in which the grey theory and method is practically applied to the establishment of GM(1,1) model, precision inspection and model revision according to Dawu water resource site and predicates the change trend of water quality at Dawu water resource site using this model. The predication result proves that the water quality predication using the model for groundwater resource site is in conformity with the grey characteristics of groundwater system and good in application and that the predication result tallies with the environment conditions. Questions to be noted are the binding conditions for the revision of scrap difference model, the order number of scrap difference and the revision of relative error of predication precision for variables of bigger random composition.