一维水文要素时间序列及可预报时间尺度研究

Study on the Fractal Dimension and Forecastable Time Scale of a Time Series of Hydrological Elements

用浑沌理论分析了一维水文要素时间序列的模式特征和中长期预报的可行性 ,并给出了水文要素可预报时间尺度的衡量指标。经过水文系统的实例研究表明 :水文系统具有混沌性 。

Forecastable time scale of hydrological elements is a basal question in extended forecasting of hydrological elements. On the basis of chaos theory, the pattern characters and the possibility of extended forecasting on hydrological elements are analyzed in this paper. The indices for measuring forcastable time scale of hydrological elements also are presented. The analysis results with two practical hydrological systems show that there are chaos characters in hydrological systems, and forecastable time scale of hydrological elements exists.