显著地震地方平太阴时分布与后续中强地震的关系

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DISTRIBUTION OF LOCAL MEAN LUNAR TIME OF SIGNIFICANT SHOCKS AND FOLLOW-UP MEDIUM STRONG EARTHQUAKES

一种曾对 1 997年新疆伽师的 2次 6级强震及 2 0 0 1年四川雅江 6 0级地震作出了较成功预报的思路为 :“两显著地震的地方平太阴时夹角小于 4 5°,且震级呈上升趋势是判断后续强震的有效指标”。利用该方法对 1 960年以来宁夏及邻区的中强地震进行了预测检验 ,在宁夏的吴忠、灵武地区和内蒙古的巴音木仁发生的中强地震前得出了较为满意的结果。认为该方法可以作为一种地震前兆指标 。

Two strong earthquakes with Ms≥6.0 in Jiashi in Xinjiang and one with Ms6.0 in Yajiang in Sichuan are successfully predicted,and the method is according to that the crossing angle between local mean lunar of two significant shocks is less than 45°,the magnitudes are shown rising tendency,and they are effective index to judge the subsequent strong earthquakes.The prediction test has been made on medium-strong earthquakes occurred in Ningxia and its neighbouring region since 1960 by using this method.The relatively satisfactory results have been got before the medium-strong earthquakes occurred in Wuzhong and Lingwu regions,Ningxia and Bayinmuren regions,Inner Mongolia.It is thought that this method can be an earthquake precursor index to be used on medium-strong earthquake prediction.