黄河流域近期用水特点与趋势分析

FEATURES AND TENDENCY OF WATER USE IN YELLOW RIVER BASIN IN RECENT YEARS

黄河流域近年来用水出现以下特点 : ①用水总量稳定 ,用水对来水丰枯情况并不敏感 ,但用水量超过了允许开发利用量 ,处于不可持续的暂时均衡状态 ; ②行业用水结构变化缓慢。农业、工业用水基本稳定 ,生活用水量呈增加趋势 ,但由于生活用水比重小而对总体用水结构影响不大 ; ③在上中下游用水结构中 ,上游用水量略有上升趋势 ,中下游用水稳中有降 ; ④总体用水效益较低 ,但黄河中游的用水效益较高。在南水北调工程实施前 ,黄河流域的可供水量为 4 80× 1 0 8～ 5 1 0× 1 0 8m3 ,黄河流域的用水将根据现有水资源分配方案的改变与否呈现不同的趋势。如果坚持现有的水资源分配方案 ,用水的地区和行业结构变化将十分缓慢。如果加强水资源管理 ,实施水权水价新法规 ,重新调整水资源分配方案 ,用水结构会发生较快的转变。

Core of this paper is to discuss the features and recent tendency of water use in Yellow River basin. Main features of water use are as follows: 1) Water use in Yellow River basin is relative steady in total amount, which has no significant correlation with abundance or shortage of river water. However, in sustainable perspective, water consumption in these regions has exceeded the use amount allowed to develop, and it is in a temporal equilibrium, a state that is not sustainable.2) In term of sector, water consumption structure changes slowly, that is, water consumption of agriculture and industry is relatively stable. Although the domestic consumption shows a tendency to increase, it has little effect on overall water consumption structure, of which domestic consumption accounts for a small proportion. 3) There is a prominent difference of water use among the upper, middle and lower reaches, which should be attribute to difference of agricultural water consumption. To speak specifically, water use in the upper reaches is stable but keeps slightly increasing, while in the middle and lower reaches, water use keeps stable but slightly decreasing. 4) Overall water benefit is relatively low, but the water benefit of middle reach is relatively high. Before the South to North Water Transfer Project is implemented, water supply amount within this region is about 48～51 billion m 3 a year. Therefore, it is necessary to adjust current structure of water use in the Yellow River basin, otherwise it will worsen the conflict between water supply and demand.