潮汕地区台风灾变的预测与研究

Prediction and Research of Typhoon Disaster in Shantou Prefecture

根据历史实践经验和个人数据统计观察 ,利用改进的灰色模型预报台风灾变年份 ,利用指数平滑模型预报台风登陆日期 ;这里定 1999年台风灾变日期为试报年份及日期。

Based on historical experiences and statistic analysis and observation of personal data,the author and the improved gray model to predict the year of typhoon disaster and use the exponential smoothness model to predict the date of typhoon As an example,the date of the typhoon disaster of 1999 is predicted