新亚欧大陆桥新疆段环境灾害的模糊马尔可夫链状预测

Fuzzy-Markovian Chain Forecast ofEnvironmental Hazards in Xinjiang Line of NewEurasian Continental Bridge

本文根据新亚欧大陆桥新疆段近 40年环境灾害统计资料 ,基于模糊马尔可夫链状预测的方法及原理 ,通过对陆桥新疆段受损状况的模糊状态划分和模糊运算 ,确立受损等级 ,根据隶属度最大原则 ,确定所属状态 ,进行灾害预测 ,预测准确率接近 80 %。

Taking 40 years of environmental hazards occurred in Xinjiang Line of New Eurasian Continental Bridge as object,the both damage frequency and damage sections caused by environmental hazards in Xinjiang Line were analyzed and forecasted by using Fuzzy-Markovian chain forecasting method and principle.Firstly,the characteristics of time-series distribution of damage situation was analyzed on the basis of the statistics;Secondly, the damage grade was determined by Fuzzy state divide and Fuzzy operation of damage situation;Thirdly,each state of damage situation was defined according to its maxmum principle,and then the damage situation in future was forecasted.The forcasting accuracy is nearly 80%.Result shows:the method we discussed above in this paper is accurate,scientific and practical.