摘要
本文建立了生产单位事故预测的非齐次泊松过程模型,以及因事故而造成的经济损失与工伤人数的估计模式,得到了利用当年事故资料预测明年各个时段事故次数的几个有关公式,给出了用回归方程求随机过程均值函数的方法.
This paper established the model of non—homogeneous poisson process for accident prcdiction of the industrial and mining enterprises,and then the models for estimating the economic loss and the amount of injurer caused by accident arc deduced.With the models and using the accident data of this year,the formulae used to forecast the accident at any time interval of next year are obtained,and the method for calculating the mean value function of random process by using the regression equation is given as well.
关键词
事故
预测模型
非齐次
泊松过程
probability/ accident prediction
non—homogeneous poisson process
economic loss
