日本金龟子在中国适生区的预测

Prediction of suitable areas for the Japanese Beetle in China

日本金龟子PopilliajaponicaNewman是一种重要的害虫 ,主要危害草坪和观赏植物。日本金龟子原产日本 ,现在已经分布于许多国家 ,并且造成了严重的经济损失。目前中国尚未有该虫分布。本文通过以计算机为基础的生态气候模型—CLIMEX ,利用气候数据来预测日本金龟子适合的地理分布区 ,预测结果是日本金龟子可以在中国大约 31个市、县地区生存 ,主要是沿海地区和长江流域 。

The Japanese beetle,Popillia japonicaNewman is a major pest of ornamentals and turf.Now it has occurred in many countries and caused serious economic loss.It has not yet been recorded in China.This paper use a computer based system for matching climates in ecology (CLIMEX)and the climate data to forecast the favorableness of the climate of different geographical locations for the Japanese Beetle.The result indicated that Japanese beetle could be established population in about 31 locations in China,whereas mainly distributed in the coastal areas and Yangtze valley,especially in the mid eastern areas of China.