鄂尔多斯地块周缘及陕西地区地震活动的灰色预测

GREY FORECASTING OF THE SEISMIC ACTIVITIES IN THE REGION SURROUNDING ORDDS BLOCK AND SHAANXI PROVINCE

本文应用灰色系统理论GM(1,1)模型研究了鄂尔多斯地块周缘及陕西地区地震的集发现象,分别建立了地震集发段的灰色预测模型,得出鄂尔多斯地块周缘Ms≥5.5级地震的下一集发段为1987年至1994年,陕西地区Ms≥4.0级地震的下一集发段为1990年至1995年。经内测检验,所建模型具有较高的预测精度。

In this paper, the clustering phenomenon of earthquakes in the region surrounding Ordos Block and Shaanxi Province has been researched using grey system theory. The grey forecasting models GM(1, 1) for the clustering time-section in the two areas have been built respectively. The forecasting results show that the next clustering time-section of M_s≥5.5 event is from 1987 to 1994 for the region surrounding Ordos Block and that of M_s≥4.0 event is from 1990 to 1995 for Shaanxi Province. The testing results also show the models have higher precision.