利用龚帕兹曲线建立导弹研制费用-时间模型

Utilizing Gompertz Curve to Establish the Model Between the Development Expenese and the Development Time of a Missle

利用通过龚帕兹曲线推导出的生命周期曲线 ,建立了导弹研制费用 -时间模型 ,并利用该模型对我国某型反舰导弹的研制费用数据进行了拟合、预测。计算表明 ,由龚帕兹曲线推导出的生命周期曲线可以较好地反映导弹研制费用与时间之间的关系 ,所建立的导弹研制费用 -时间模型的预测结果也较好 ,因而具有较高的实用性。

This paper presents a method of utilizing life cycle curve which is obtained from gompertz curve to establish the model which reflects the relationship between the development expenses and the development time of a missle. And use the development expenses datum of a kind of anti-missle to simulate and forecast based on this model. The results show that this kind of life cycle curve can reflect preferably the relationship between the development expenses and the development time of a missle and the forecasting results obtained from the model are effective. So this model has a higher practicability.