直接多点测位法与华北地震

METHOD OF DIRECT FORECASTING EPICENTER WITH MULTIPOINT AND THE EARTHQUAKES OCCURRED IN NORTH CHINA

本文根据大华北地区地震分布的空间特征,提出“直接多点测位法”,旨在用来预测该区域内未来可能发生强震的地区。该方法的具体步骤是,在任一地震区外选取4个参考点,将该区内发生的各次地震震中相对参考点的地心夹角表示在坐标平面上,使可从中找出震中空间运动规律。震中的迁移符合马尔科夫过程。由此,可预测该区域未来发震的概率。经预测检验,该方法是可行的。本文还利用该方法对华北地震区未来地震趋势作了预测。

This paper proposes the method of direct forecasting epicenter with multipoint aimed at predicting the probable areas of coming strong earthquakes. The procedures of this method are: selecting four reference-points out of any seismic areas; writing down geocentric angles relative to the reference-points of each epicenter on the coordinate plane; finding out the curve of epicentral space movement law. Different curves show different movement states, each state migration of epicenters accords with Markov process. Thus, the earthquake occurring probability in future can be predicted for any seismic area. Finally, Using this method, the future seismic situation for some seismic areas in North China is predicted.