中国经济增长的波动分析

Analysis of Fluctuations of Economic Development of China

对国民经济增长的波动进行计算分析。应用MexicanHat小波对国内生产总值 (GDP)的增长率进行多时间尺度分析 ,再利用宏观经济学的理论从政府宏观调控政策、投资、消费等方面分析引起波动的原因。在不同时间尺度下 ,经济波动受到政策、投资和消费及重大政治事件的影响。通过对经济增长波动的因素及规律的分析 ,可以提高对经济发展的预见性 。

The Mexican Hat wavelet is applied to analyzing the fluctuations of economic development in P. R. China since its foundation in 1949. The increasing rate of GDP is analyzed with the Mexican Hat wavelet at a range of time scales, and the causes of the fluctuations is discussed based on macroeconomic theory in view of government policies, investment and consumers' behaviors. China's economy shows different cycles at different time scales, and it is affected by the government policies, important political events, investment and consumer's behaviors.