短期气候客观相似预测方案

An Objective Analogue Scheme for Short-term Climatic Prediction

提出一种对短期气候进行客观相似预测的方案 .该方案应用历史资料和动力气候预报产品 ,以中层与高层的大气环流场、环流特征量、太平洋海温场、厄尔尼诺 -南方涛动、天文背景及地面要素等 10个因子为相似判据 ,定义统一评估相似程度的相似指数 ,综合估算预报时段的前期、近期与同期因子的连续演变相似 ,寻找出相似年份对短期气候进行预测 .预测的检验与试验表明 ,该方案对短期气候具有预测能力 .

An objective analogue scheme for short-term climatic prediction is developed. Using objective criterions of factors including the atmosphere general circulation, SST, ENSO, meteorological parameters, astronomical background and etc., a similar index is defined. Some similar samples in past periods are found out by the index from past records and dynamical climatic prediction products. The verification and forecasting results indicated that this scheme is efficacious.