上海城区大气NO_x污染对健康影响的定量评价

Quantitative Assessment of Impact of Ambient Air Nitrogen Oxides on Human Health in Shanghai

以国际上近年来通用的危险度评价方法为基础,结合NO_x每增高1单位所产生的健康损失,定量估计上海城区大气中NO_x污染对人体健康的影响。结果表明:(1)1990、1998和1999年,上海城区大气中NO_x污染造成人群呼吸系统疾病患病率分别增加0.77％、1.57％和1.50％,可避免的呼吸道疾病病例数分别为54200、98900、94900;(2)1990、1998和1999年,NO_x污染亦造成人群肺功能指标FVC分别减少38、93、89mL,FEV_(1.0)减少37、92、88mL。因此,上海市城区大气中NO_x污染对居民造成了一定的健康损失,且近10年来呈上升趋势。

To quantitatively evaluate the health impact due to ambient air nitrogen oxides exposure in 10 urban districts of Shanghai, the approach used in this paper is based on the internationally accepted quantitative risk assessment framework in combination with unit increase in mortality or morbidity per unit increase of nitrogen oxides, level, to quantitatively assess the health impact due to NOx exposure. It was shown that in 1990, 1998 and 1999, ambient air nitrogen oxides increased the morbidity of respiratory illness by 0.77%, 1.57% and 1.50% in 10 urban districts of Shanghai, and the attributable cases due to air NOx exposure were 54200, 98900 and 94900 respectively. Concerning lung function changes, nitrogen oxides aslo caused an average decrease of 38, 93 and 89 ml in FVC, 37, 92 and 88ml in FEV1.0 in 1990, 1998 and 1999, respectively. The health impact associated with air nitrogen oxdies exposure in the urban districts of Shanghai is an important issue, in addition there is an increasing trend in the past decade.