供给冲击、价格总水平下降与货币量紧缩

Supply Shock, The Alteration of General Price Level and Deflation

自 1 998年以来我国就发生了通货紧缩。从理论上说 ,短期的供给变动所形成的供给冲击是价格总水平变化的一个重要因素 ,但是这种供给冲击需要需求面因素的交互作用才能使价格总水平的下降保持持续性。那么构成市场需求的实际货币量的紧缩就成为造成通货紧缩的另一个重要原因 ,它有两个内涵 :一是现实流通的货币量 (在中国 ,与其最接近的是M1 )增长率的降低 ,二是货币流通速度的放慢 ,适时实施扩张的货币政策是一种理性的政策选择。

Since 1998, China has suffered from deflation. Theoretically, the supply shock, which is unanticipated change of supply in the short run, is an important factor to the alteration of general price level. However, this shock combined with some demand side factor, leads to a sustainable price fall. This paper finds that the contraction of real money stock is another important cause for the deflation, which has two connotations the money in circulation (M1 is the most proper indicator in China) and the slow down of money velocity. The expansion of money supply is a rational choice.